Narnia’s Opening Weekend Looking Good
Posted December 10, 2005 11:30 pm by Tirian
From Box Office Prophets:
The C.S. Lewis adaptation opened to a stunning $23.4 million. What’s up for debate at the moment is how much of this figure may be attributed to religious groups and church viewings. Such groups haven’t been as excited for a movie like this since The Passion of the Christ. Comparing the two films, the Mel Gibson epic earned only $150,000 more on its first Friday than Narnia’s estimate. Box office behavior these days has seen a reduction in the size of internal multipliers, but the comparable religious film earned $83.8 million over the weekend with an internal multiplier of 3.56. If Narnia performs at that level, its opening would be $83.3 million. That’s a tad ambitious since the possibility exists that this title is more frontloaded. A hedged bet estimate is a 3.2 multiplier, indicating an opening weekend of $74.9 million. This would be a December opening record if it holds.
Ken reminds us that while it is true that LWW’s first day is the 19th best Box Office sales for the first day of all movies, it should be noted that it is the highest Box Office opening for any Disney movie. Looking at the chart of best opening days at boxofficemojo.com, you’ll notice that none of the 18 above it are Disney films.
UPDATE: The studio has announced official estimate numbers for the weekend of $67 million. According to charts at World of KJ, this is the second-best December opening ever and the 23rd best opening ever for any time during the year. This also puts the film as the third-best opener of the year behind Star Wars Episode III and Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire.
Official Numbers will be forthcoming on Monday.