Box Office Mojo Analysis for Dawn Treader
Brandon Grey from Box Office Mojo has posted his thoughts on how The Voyage of the Dawn Treader will fair at the box office. He seems to come to the conclusion that making the third Narnia film a box office hit will be an uphill battle, although he realizes that “the book on which it’s based is reportedly dearer to Narnia’s disciples than Prince Caspian was.”
While Prince Caspian received a lot of flack, Narnia was never destined to be the next Lord of the Rings or Harry Potter, despite its auspicious beginning. The first movie was based on the only widely-known book in the Narnia series and it was a complete journey, whereas all of the Potters and Rings were famous and had the benefit of story continuity. The wait was longer between the Narnia movies than for Potter and Rings, and Prince Caspian came off as just another fantasy adventure, nearly indistinguishable from the plethora of similar fantasies made in the wake of Potter and Rings.
In the final paragraph, he writes, “One should expect the ship to sink further than Prince Caspian.” Let’s prove him wrong, NarniaWebbers! As Douglas Gresham would say, bring your friends, and have them bring their friends (and enemies too).
Thanks to narnian1 and Kotarki for the heads-up!
🙁 I hope he's wrong, and that the movie turns out to be fantasic!
It's gonna be fantastic!
It is going to be AMAZING 🙂 nobody cares about one persons view cause we all know it is going to be the best film the world has ever seen 🙂
LOVE YOU NARNIA YOU ARE THE AIR THAT I BREATH 🙂
me too, but the truth is that these people aren't really that dedicated to the story… I will enjoy the Narnia movies that come in the future, but I know that things of this world are not what we should hope or trust in.
Let´s prove them wrong indeed! The Dawn Treader will tread new ground, sail the seven seas and party hard to the break of dawn! Wind it up!
That's the spirit! 😀
Bring it on!
I have to admit, BOM is right. The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe is by far the best known book in the Chronicles. On the other hand, really good movies have a way of being seen. Look at Avatar. It's raked in billions of dollars because people liked it. Basically, if The Voyage of the Dawn Treader is a great movie, it will probably be sucessful.
Not that I thought Avatar was a bad movie or anything, but I think another reason it did so well was because it was also super hyped.
Yes, Avatar had a lot of things on its side before it came out. Everyone knew about it and wanted to see it, for one thing. Everyone knew it was visually and technologically stunning. Everyone knew that it had been more than a decade in the making. Before it had even come out, it was widely known and already a big sensation. I don't know that the Dawn Treader could pull off such publicity.
I agreed with him a lot towards the end where he wrote that this movie needs marketing efforts. As long as they start putting out the word now instead of after the summer people will get hyped.
His expectations seeme too low. Although I do agree on some parts of this interview. Im hoping he is wrong!
Narnia needs something to make it distinguished from the Rings trilogy. An annoying thing about PC (and LWW to some extent) was what looked like intentional similarities with the LOTR movies.
As long as VDT isn't focused all on war, I hope it does well!
I'd have to agree with BoxOfficeMojo. So let's hope for that "extraordinary marketing effort".
That was a discouraging article. I believe and hope he's wrong as can be. We Narnia fans know that Voyage is one of the best fantasies around. Spread the word to friends who haven't read the book. It can't fail.If it stays close to the book it can't fail!
Agreed!!! 🙂
I agree too! 🙂
Well, we can only hope for the best!
He is right to an extent, though I also think that he is overy pessimistic. While I dont expect any Narnia movie to gross more than LWW, I do expect Dawn Treader to be more successful than Prince Caspian. It is also my hope that it will also be enough to green light more Narnia films.
I'll prove him wrong. I'll try to get a ride with some friends, then go with my own family. That'll do my best to give more box office.
Bring it on!
I agree that he has some points he's right about, but that doesn't mean much. Part of Prince Caspian's failure to be a huge success was 1)it's the least-read book in the series, 2)it's a very difficult story to adapt to the screen, and 3)they released it in May, where it had to compete with several long-anticipated movies. It just had no chance. VDT, however, is the most popular book after LWW, and it has a December release, which is probably when it will do the best. Also, I consider it a very good thing that Disney dropped out. While VDT may have lost the "Disney" logo and publicity, it earned a completely new audience with Fox. I feel fairly confident about VDT's release, providing we do our part by giving the best kind of publicity–word of mouth. (Besides, remember Avatar? Everyone thought it would fail…)
It sounds as if he's taking a Puddleglum approach to this… 😛
I think it's a better story than PC, and if the adaption is done well, it will do well in the box office. I will be sure to bring all my friends and their friends (and enemies) to see it!
I think we should all prepare for the worst, but hope for the best. Don't set our hopes too high, but don't get discouraged either.
And predictions are often wrong. 😉
I totally think that we can prove him wrong. Altough it may not do as good at first due to Prince Caspian if the movie is good then people will probably go based off of what everyone is saying who went. All I know is that all of my friends and I will be going to the very first show! We are going to get as many people as possible to go!
I Agree! I will be doing the same thing!
Of course he's wrong. The flack that Prince Caspian recieved had nothing to do with story continuity or the wait inbetween movies. The reason Prince Caspian did bad is because it's a pathetic movie. The reason why it's a pathetic movie is because the filmmakers didn't stick to the book. The movie makers are supposed to be STORY tellers. But they didn't tell the story of Prince Caspian. Rather, they just expected you to have read the book, and those who didn't read the book didn't have a clue what was going on.
One guy I know who didn't read the book said, "What was the significance of the old guy?"
I was like, "What?!! The old guy?!! You mean Dr. Cornelius?"
He didn't even know who Dr. Cornelius was, nor his significance in the story!
Because the movie makers failed to tell the story of Prince Caspian they left the audience wondering what the heck was going one, therefore the movie didn't perform like any of the big blockbusters like Lord of the Rings.
One of the most touching scenes in Prince Caspian was the reuniting of Caspian and his old nurse. They left it out of the movie!!
(FYI: “Flack” means marketing)
Nurse was cut because the Caspian in the movie is older than the Caspian in the book. Way too old to have a nurse.
So why did Caspian have to be aged? Because it’s important that he be about the same age as Peter. And William Moseley had aged since the filming of LWW. So it was a change that had to be made.
Doctor Cornelius is not as prominent of a character in the movie, because of the unfortunate but necessary structural changes they made. The way the story is told in the book works great in the book, but just would not work in the movie. This fundamental structural change FORCED them to make many more changes. Cutting most of Doc’s scenes was one of those changes.
As a huge fan of film as an art form, I’m slightly offended by the suggestion that a movie’s box office depends on how good it is. Totally not true. Transformers 2 was one of the highest-grossing movies of all time.
Just look at the Best Picture winner. Nearly all of them have grossed around 100 million or less. Profit = Quality simply isn't true.
Too right. And what about Avatar? Talk about style over substance. The visuals were very good but the rest was very mediocre (perhaps worse). VDT may sound just like any other fantasy movie but it's not.
I think to say that structural changes to the book were necessary for the movie is a very strange and closed minded belief. When I read the book Prince Caspian I felt it was structured perfectly for a movie with flashbacks. Just like the flashbacks in Forrest Gump. Just like the flashbacks in Titanic. Just like the flashbacks in The Princess Bride.
The fact that Caspian is too old for a nurse is no problem for the movie. All they would have to do is show some flashbacks to when Caspian was very young and had his nurse taken away. They could have used a child actor who looked like Ben Barnes. Then show him reunite with her when he's older.
It's obvious Caspian made less than half the amount of money LWW made because LWW was a GOOD movie. But the story of Caspian wasn't told the way that Lewis told it, and almost all of the allegory was lost. Which, by the way, the Christian allegory was one of the main reasons Lewis wrote the books. It's no wonder a perverse and worldly movie director like Adamson would want to strip the story bare of it's deeper insights. And this stripping of the story is what cheapened the movie, in both quality and box office revenue.
Nathan, the book was NOT structured to make a movie. I mean, some flashbacks are absolutely fine, but too many and the movie gets entirely too confusing. Did you expect them to make approx. a third of the movie in flashback? The book is structured this way. The Pevensies come to Narnia and meet Trumpkin. He tells them all that happened to Caspian and the position that they are in now. They then spend chapters just trying to find the right way. Caspian (the title character) is nonexistent in these chapters. Then the boys and Trumpkin finally meet Caspian. Peter becomes the main character in the fight, not Caspian. The Telmarines come to the bridge, and then there's another flashback to the girls and Aslan. Then all of them meet at the very end.
The Pevensies, in the book, are the main characters, not Caspian. However, the movie is called Prince Caspian. Do you expect them to make a movie called Prince Caspian that's about some kids called the Pevensies? People who just decided to see the movie and don't know about Narnia would become confused that the title character isn't in the story. The producers did it this way to allow Caspian more screen time.
I am glad that they did not do it in flashback style like the book. I think it might have been weird to have Trumpkin say "Let me tell you a story" on screen, and then have a narrator come in. That is, I would rather not have seen that. But couldn't they have still done the movie in the same more straightforward manner, yet not placed the Pevensies in most of the movie? What I'm saying is, couldn't it have been all the same timeline and simply had the Pevensies arrive AFTER the night raid (instead of Peter being the one to have actually instigated it)? Caspian could have been the one solely in charge of the night raid, and then they could have done something like having the Pevensies fighting the Telmarines in the woods or something. I'm sure it could have been done.
Lady Galadriel, I think the reason they didn't do it like that is because when people come to see a sequel, they want to see familiar characters from the previous installment. People who came to see PC but had never read the book were expecting to see the Pevensies – they would have been very confused and felt distanced from the movie if the first half was all about some character they'd never seen before, and the old characters were nowhere to be found. Honestly, I agree with you; i think it would be nice if the Pevensies came a bit later. However, in a movie, it probably wouldn't have worked.
Well, I meant there still could have been scenes with the Pevensies throughout the whole. They would just meet Caspian later, that's all.
I completely agree with you Glumpuddle. Some changes had to be made because of the characters ages, and the populartity of the book. Nathan, please don't be so negative. Flashbacks would have made the movie a bit confusing, and maybe drag. It was fine how it was. Plus, what has been done is done, what good will complaining about it do?
VOTD will be an awesome movie!!! It will be AWESOMENESS! I'll bring my family and friends (if I can). We'll prove him wrong!! All of us will! It won't sink it will swim and I'll dive in!!!
(Didn't mean to be rude….if I was)
i think everyone needs to take a breather right now, and stop thinking about how it has a chance of sinking, because nobody knows that yet. no one can know until the movie comes out. so anyone who is thinking this, we need to neutralize our minds till this movie comes out, then we can have the freedom of choosing if this movie will succeed or not.
he will be proven wrong….the movie is going to be great..
I agree with him. The Franchise needs to work on their timing…by the time the next movie has come out everyone already forgot the last one..lets hope the Dawn Treader picks up speed for future Narnia films!
I AM SURE IT WILL BE GREAT!!!!!!!!!!!!
don't listen to Brandon Grey the movie has not even been out yet he can't judge the movie when its not out yet i think it can be or should be the best in the movie series
does anyone agree with me leave comments
I respect Brandon Gray's oppinion. But I think that the movie will be pretty good, you can't really judge something untill you see it.
He never says if he thinks the movie is going to be good or bad. He just says that making it a box office hit is going to be very difficult.
One thing that The Voyage of the Dawn Treader has going for it is: the VDT is a seafaring movie. Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings are not seafaring adventures; therefore, VDT will stand out apart from them. 🙂
VDT is going to do way better than Prince Caspian! I'm going to watch it at least 10 times, no joke!!!!
if you guys have any questions email me grant at gwils14@yahoo.com
I have given up hope. It is going to be too different from the book and therefore uninteresting just like Prince Caspian was.
How do you know? You haven't even seen it yet.
I have decided to wait until I have seen VDT before I form any opinion. And yes, the analysis is a bit discouraging, but I'm still gonna bring my friends and enemies! 😉
I can't guarantee that it won't be vastly different from the book or otherwise, but I don't think it will be dull. I didn't find PC to be dull, although if I compared it to the book I found it disgraceful. It had a lot of action.
I want VDT to be as close to the book as possible (within reason, of course). But I figure, in terms of my beliefs in adaptation, it can't be any worse than PC! (I hope?) So I'm going to hold my judgment too until I see it. Who knows, maybe I will revert to full book purism! *shrugs* But either way, I am certain it won't be boring.
I think Box Office mojo is an idiot. Harry potter stinks! Narnia rocks. yeah, maybe lww WAS the only widely known book, who bloody cares? Narnis is just awesome to compare it to other fantasy movies that will never match up to it is just stupid. I don't think VDT will sink. I expect it to sail onto into all our hearts! (Okay I know that sounded cheesy beyond all reason, but give me a break, it's 11:04 PM where I am!)
This guy is like a weather forecaster; sometimes he is right, sometimes close, and others really wrong (either overestimating or underestimating results).
I think he under estimates Narnia as just another fantasy series. I believe VDT will be better than PC and perform better. Time will tell…Sail on VDT! 🙂
Those of you that disagree with this analysis, try arguing with his points instead of just getting emotional.
Most of his points make a lot of sense. The Chronicles of Narnia are seven stand-alone stories, unlike HP or Lord of the Rings. That is indisputable.
LWW is the most widely-known. Hard to argue with that one.
He says PC failed to stand out. I think that’s a very fair point. It just looked like another fantasy film.
It’s very rare for a sequel to be more successful than its predecessor. So it is not unreasonable to predict that VDT will gross less than PC.
I agree somewhat…let's remember that both films did over $1.2 billion dollars world wide, of which over $400 million world wide for PC. That is nothing to shake a stick at. The problem is these movie experts (ahhh)always look at what the US does to gauge the overall success in the movie industry. again, $160+ million in the US is still a decent take for a novel movie…Out of all the banter so far I have noticed that it is not in our hands anyway. Let's allow the Spirit of which C.S. Lewis wrote these great stories/novels the freedom to do it's work…remember, all the other medias of the movies: DVD sales,rentals,of course THE BOOKS ALONE have been a big seller for over 50+ years..Lets all relax and trust that the message that prevails in all of the media will touch hearts like C.S. intended….that was his plan.
Well Revenge Of The Sith, Return Of The King and the three latest Harry Potter movies did better than there predecessers so there is still hope yet! 🙂
I really don't agree with the article, but I do respect his opinion. The Voyage of the Dawn Treader – any movie really – either will work for people or it wont. We can dissect it for good and bad ad nauseaum. The viewers hold the final word in ticket sales. 🙂 Speculation on my part is that it will do reasonably well.
Narnia works well when people don't compare it with the Lord of the Rings and HP anymore. Narnia should be independent if it wants to rock. When people saw PC, some of them held the opinion that it's not as visual effective as the Rings.
The success of the Dawn Treader depends solely on how true to the book Micheal Apted will be. If he stays closer to the book than LWW was, then it will be more successful than LWW. But if Apted makes it more untrue to the book than PC was, then it will be a failure.
If Apted doesn't respect the source material, we'll never see the Silver Chair.
As I was reading the full article, I came across this sentence in the studio description: On this bewitching voyage that will test their hearts and spirits, the trio will face magical Dufflepuds, sinister slave traders, roaring dragons and enchanted merfolk. Will these "Enchanted merfolk" play a fairly large part in VDT since they are important enough to put with the dufflepuds, dragons, and slave traders(all pretty major)?
I can understand where he's coming from, but I think it's a tad unfair to judge a movie before there's even a trailer out yet. And I know a lot of people have been making Avatar references, but here's one more: a lot of people thought that movie was going to flop, and look what happened! Let's try to stay optimistic, okay?
He's not judging the movie itself. He's talking about its BOX OFFICE. Even if the movie is awesome and everyone loves it, I think it's going to have a hard time grossing $500m.
Well he's a marsh-wiggle. 🙁
I still think 'Dawn Treader' will do well (better than Prince Caspian').
I liked PC a lot everyone is putting it down in fact I liked it better then LWW, and I think VD is going to be just as good. Cant wait to see the first trailer.
I liked PC too! LWW is my favorite movie. I can't wait for the first trailor!
Uggh! Whatever, VD is going to do amazing!!!
I definitely agree with Gresham! Lets try to get people to come! Narnia is AWESOME!
I agree with glumPuddle's points. We shouldn't get emotional. At the same time, how dare Gray judge a movie before a trailer?! Does he know the Narnia series as well as the fans? Probably not. I hope and pray he is wrong about VDT.
1. LWW and VDT are probably the best known in the series.
2. We need to get the word out, people! Just like fans did with LWW!
3. I have more faith in Apted and Fox than Adamson and Disney. Sorry.
4. I'm also partly hoping some spotlight on the cast and/or crew spurs interest in VDT.
I know this has nothing to do with the news story. But I'm looking for NWebbers who responded to my posts on the "Narnia.com Returns" story: Starlily, HighQueenofNarnia, Aravis Tarkheena, Aravis and Hwin, narniafan4ever, [ForNarniaAndForAslan], NarniaFreak, NarnianElf, and Ariel_of_Narnia. If you're interested, there are a few ways of praying for the Narnia cast and crew.
1. My hyperlinked username will lead you to my Facebook group: "Narnia cast and crew: pray!" If you're on Facebook, join the group! But everything is still available [for reading] to non-FBers.
2. If you're on the forum, NarniaWebber Benjamin started a prayer and fasting group for Skandar Keynes. PM him to join.
3. If you're on the forum, you can submit general prayer requests for the Narnia cast and crew in the "Prayer for famous folk" thread.
God bless you all! Pray!
I've done pretty much all that… except I'm not on FB.
i totally disagree with everything he said!!! dawn treader is going to be amazing!!!!!!
Point.
His reasons are pretty good. I just have more faith in fans who know the series and marketing indrusty okay more than a professional whose closest brush with the books was probably glancing at the cover in a bookstore.
Then, who knows? Might be an epic faliure. Might be a hit. Like Indiana Jones.
Everyone, as long as they stick with the book, the Dawn Treader will not fall into the "just like everything else" category and will probably do well. He might just be saying this to keep people from going to see the movie.
KEEP PRAYING AND DON'T GIVE UP!
that dude is mean. i'm gonna watch it at least 5 times in theatres now. take that 😛
Come on, Narnia fans! Let's prove him wrong! The Dawn Treader's going to do great! If Prince Caspian didn't do well, a lot of it had to do with it not having the strongest story line. Anyway, people very well could watch VDT just to see if it's a LWW or a PC, in they way it was made, anyway. Also, a new director, new movie company, etc. might just be enough to make people curious as to where this is going.
He will be eating his words soon. I have already decided to take up a summer or part-time job so I can go to the theater several times. We can do it. Let's prove him wrong.
I agree with some of the money-making things that he said. But none of the expectations! I hope that this movie will exceed everyone's wildest dreams. I have a lot of faith in Georgie, Skandar, Ben, (I don't know about Will) and the other actors to make a good movie. And I dearly hope that the script is close to the book. Otherwise it will sink. But I think that there is hope for Dawn Treader! Andrew Adamson said himself that the book is *checks movie guide* "very cinematic in scope". So hopefully they use the book as the script.
(Maybe it's just an over-competitive spirit, but…) I personally take "One should expect the ship to sink further than Prince Caspian" as a bit of a challenge. Well, YOU'RE ON, Brandon Grey! Let's make this movie a success!
Hey!!! The Narnia movies happens to be my favorite of all movies! I bet you are soooo wrong, dude! He's getting proved wrong! I'd like to see the look on his face when the theaters are full to the brim with people, lines go on down the streets! Let's prove him wrong, people!!! I'm going to watch VDT three times for sure!
Vdt is going to be the best narnia movie ever!
Who cares about one persons oppinon whene the
Houll world would rather chose for themselfs
Wether its a good movie or not
It will tread water!
Just you wait.
Really the link to the Silver Chair will have to be made by the Character of Eustace Scrubb. If we love that character we will want to go back with him to Narnia. I'm game I love these movies and I doubt the writer was ever a fan so its just conjecture. Hollywood never knows if it has a hit or not so lets show them Narnia is worth the visit again and again.
Eragon and The Golden Compass? He's comparing the Dawn Treader to those two stories? Millions of people from many generations are familiar with the Dawn Treader book, while those other two movies are from very recent books. And The Golden Compass got trounced in America because the word got out that the writer was anti-God, and a lot of people refused to go see it.
yeah ^^ those two wern't even that popular!
Also, it got out that the Golden Compass was written because the author did not like Narnia. I heard that it was even depressing. It's nothing at all like The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe.
Eragon is not like Narnia; it is about a boy learning about magic and swordfighting with a dragon.
Narnia's fan base mainly comes from parents and their children reading the books, so family friendly movies of them are a must [except, perhaps the Last Battle]. Prince Caspian was a borderline film for the "Family Friendly" category.
I think that VotDT is going to do great and surprise everyone! go VotDT!
World's end or bust!
screeeeew him.what does he know.im gonna bring the whole school.lets show em.those idiots.narnia is way better than the lord of the rings and harry potter.i hate the lord of the rings is so boring.and harry potter is just plain weird narnia is nothing like them!!!!!!!!is 100 times better!
LWW was really popular with people, while PC was a lot more controversial. Some people really like it, and some people can't stand it. (I love it! :-)) I think that the controversial-ism might possibly be good for VDT. It might make people want to see want if LWW was beginner's luck (as far as making Narnia into movies goes) or if they can pull it off again.
Personally, I'm afraid that VDT might get compared to Pirates of the Caribbean. (Sailing to the end of the world, fighting monsters…) However, VDT has a story, and it's a strong one! I feel pretty confident that it will do well!
I"ll meet you at the theater! The Narnians have been rallied!
I hope this person is wrong. I hope we can prove them wrong. Dawn Treader is one of the best Narnia installments- while PC was a weak one. May VDT succeed in the theatres.
Sounds like a pessimist to me.
I agree- and you would know, Puddleglum. 🙂
Thank you your Majesty.
Though I must admit to not looking forward to the concessions in the theater. There will be all the butter they add to cover the stale popcorn. Give me clogged arteries I'm sure.
Not I Have any thing to do about it!!!!
We HAVE to prove him wrong!! The Narnia books are classics…we have to support it the very FIRST weekend it comes out!!! I am already planning to watch the movie all that weekend and taking my whole family!! I suggest you all do the same!!! As someone already posted: "The Narnians' have been rallied"…we can do this guys!!! VDT CANNOT fail!!!!!!
I really hope B.O. Mojo is wrong, but I understand where he's coming from.
We still have to see how well Fox promotes Narnia. However, I think it's safe to say that if they market Narnia the way they promoted Percy Jackson, Eragon, City of Ember and The Seeker we could be in for big trouble. The movies weren't all that good – which doesn't help – and it seems they handle all of the promotion materials for their children's fantasy movies (posters, trailers, signs, slogans, press releases etc.) in a 'one-size-fits-all' way.
Say what you will about Disney, but even when their family films are dumb and all the same, you know their marketing will make them look as if they were slightly interesting and different from one another – even when they're not. Their only major flaw is they usually pick the worst release dates.
I sincerely hope Walden has more say in the marketing of the movie than we imagine.