Box Office Mojo Analysis for Dawn Treader

Brandon Grey from Box Office Mojo has posted his thoughts on how The Voyage of the Dawn Treader will fair at the box office. He seems to come to the conclusion that making the third Narnia film a box office hit will be an uphill battle, although he realizes that “the book on which it’s based is reportedly dearer to Narnia’s disciples than Prince Caspian was.”

While Prince Caspian received a lot of flack, Narnia was never destined to be the next Lord of the Rings or Harry Potter, despite its auspicious beginning. The first movie was based on the only widely-known book in the Narnia series and it was a complete journey, whereas all of the Potters and Rings were famous and had the benefit of story continuity. The wait was longer between the Narnia movies than for Potter and Rings, and Prince Caspian came off as just another fantasy adventure, nearly indistinguishable from the plethora of similar fantasies made in the wake of Potter and Rings.

Read the full report here.

In the final paragraph, he writes, “One should expect the ship to sink further than Prince Caspian.” Let’s prove him wrong, NarniaWebbers! As Douglas Gresham would say, bring your friends, and have them bring their friends (and enemies too).

Thanks to narnian1 and Kotarki for the heads-up!

106 Responses

  1. shirerat says:

    sadly, Dawn Treader has no villain, no action, and very little plot. the story is great and of course the characters are awesome, but there is no real build-up to anything. no tragedy, very little romance, very little danger, and an epic ending of a mouse ascending to heaven. how is this supposed to be a box-office blockbuster?

    • farsight1 says:

      They don't NEED a story build up to make it a blockbuster. They need to get the book RIGHT. If they start messing around with it the way they did with PC, I don't care if we don't get any more Narnia movies our way anytime soon. Watching your favorite books get ruined on the big screen is too painful (specially when you KNOW how good these movies could have been).

    • tolkienlewisfan says:

      It will be a rought ride to VoDT. While i loved the book, it does have some issues when making the transition to the big screen. 1. No villian to root against, unless u cosider eustace one. 2. There is no build up or climax. A mouse ascending into heaven nor the talk between Aslan and the children is a climax. After the dumb decision to sandwich PC between Iron Man and Indy4, I think the Narnia franchise might end here…I pray that I am wrong.

  2. NarnianElf says:

    Yikes… now they have me scarred!!

  3. polly plummer says:

    Not to worry shirerat they'll probably add a villian, major battles, new plot lines, tragedy, danger and romance. If they do I don't care if they make any more films – I'll not be watching them if they massacre them the way they did PC I could count on my hands the number of scenes they actually took from the book!

  4. polly plummer says:

    By the way the epic ending isn't 'a mouse ascending to heaven' Its the Pevencies and Eustace meeting Aslan and his revelation as God and how they can see him in their own lifes. If done well it could be a really emotional scene – however given how all references and Christian symbolism were ignored I don't hold much hope for this scene – wow I'm gettign pessimistic!

    • GodsGadfly says:

      And, technically, it's not a mouse "ascending" into Heaven; only Jesus (or Aslan) can "ascend" into Heaven. In Catholic terminology, it would be "assumed" (as in the Assumption of Mary); in Protestant terminology, "raptured" (as in, well, the Rapture)–both emphasing God bringing the person *up* to Heaven, where Jesus ascended of His own power.

  5. Pessimistic Hubristic Misanthrope says:

    wow lawlz this movie gonna suck

  6. Linnea Rowlatt says:

    I liked Prince Caspian, and I bet I'll like The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, too. I think as long as they're faithful to the spirit of the books, some allowance has to be made for the transfer to another media.

    I also think it's a good idea they're releasing Dawn Treader over Christmas, instead of in May (even though it's a longer wait), because the winter mood for films is different than the summer mood. And, think how nice it'll be to see a beautiful warm ocean on screen in December!

  7. Jo says:

    Truthfully, I don't really care about the fact that there will be less action scenes or whatnot. Just as long as they continue giving us SOMETHING. 🙂 Peace. 😀 I love Narnia!

  8. Alambil and Tarva says:

    I actually think the fact that VDT is going to be less action-based is going to serve in its favor. Of course we love the action in fantasy/scifi films, and no doubt it will have some of that, but after awhile it just becomes an overload, especially if the plot and characters are weak (think Avatar). What VDT has is not necessarily what one would call a normal plot, but it has the foundation of the archetypal adventure/journey story, a type of story that has been often associated with epics such as The Odyssey, or classic novels such as Treasure Island. It has to be said that although yes, we do love the battles, NO ONE can resist a good story about a sea voyage. There's something that's different about those kinds of stories, something that is magical in a very different way from other stories. Plus, when you combine that with the original genius of C.S. Lewis and the genius of Apted's crew and the cast, you get a stunning film that is much more than an ordinary fantasy film. From what I've read about the sneak peeks in L.A. recently, it looks like we're going to be blown away by this film. Just the implications of how amazing the ocean cinematography is, along with the CGI, and how Mark Johnson and Michael Apted described the plot as being very character-driven seem to indicate that VDT is going to exceed expectations.

    My belief is that it's going to be the surprise blowout hit of the year. I sincerely hope I'm right.

    And just to add, the Potter films as a whole are not that great. Only 'Half-Blood Prince' came just a hair shy of being phenomenal–as an adaptation it was good, and as a film on its own it was amazing. However, none of the previous films really achieved that same status as HBP did (save for maybe 'Chamber of Secrets'). LOTR was mind-blowing, but HP has been for the most part sub-par and very inconsistent in style (you can tell when the directors switched for the films). Both LWW and PC have well exceeded the standards set by the HP movies.

  9. Aravis says:

    I don't think the movie of PC really ruined the books for me. I've been an obsessed narnia fan since I was around seven years old, and I usually don't like it when they make movies way different than the books, but I think they did an awesome job of capturing the general plot of the book, even if many of the details were different. the symbolism really came through, and i thought it was really powerful. I loved both the movies, and I'm definately looking forward to seeing VDT in December!