How Will ‘Dawn Treader’ Do at the Box Office?

Posted December 1, 2010 8:16 am by fantasia_kitty

Now that the world premiere is over for The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, reviews (positive, negative, and mediocre) are starting to come in fast and furious. For those of us who realize that the rest of the Chronicles of Narnia movies ride on this film, we’re especially curious to know how it will do at the Box Office.

Predictions are an educated guess of course, not a peek into the future, but here are some sites that offer predictions as to how Dawn Treader is going to do.

Reuters.com posted a report quoting Gray of Boxofficemojo who said that Fox and Walden should not expect too much. “I would consider it a relative success if the picture gets close to the Prince Caspian numbers,” he said, adding that global ticket revenues of over $400 million “should warrant another movie.”

I personally would think that this movie should easily come close to Prince Caspian‘s numbers. Even if Dawn Treader doesn’t sell quite as many tickets as Caspian, the extra cash from the 3D tickets should more than make up for it. Look at The Last Airbender for example. It received a 6% rating from RottenTomatoes.com, was generally disliked by those who did go see it, and it still made $131.6 million domestically. Just $10 million short of what Prince Caspian made. Surely Dawn Treader can do much better than that?!

Onto a more positive story, the Hollywood Reporter has announced that Dawn Treader is tracking as one of the best out ofthe Holiday releases at this point. They write:
“With some high-profile holiday movies starting to hit Hollywood’s prerelease tracking services, it appears first-weekend prospects for Disney’s Tron: Legacy are significantly below where the studio needs to be with its pricey tentpole.”
“Elsewhere among the holiday-season releases, Sony’s Dec. 10 opener The Tourist, starring Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp, is showing soft prerelease interest. A Tourist debut of just $20 million or so is possible, based on light must-see sentiment expressed so far by respondents to tracking surveys.”
“Meantime, Fox’s Dec. 10 opener The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader is outpacing most of the other season titles in the breadth of its must-see sentiment.”

Having said all of that, the last I heard, Dawn Treader was tracking to make at least a $45 million opening weekend. On one hand that’s good because nobody else is coming in even close. On the other hand, The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe‘s opening weekend was $65 million and Prince Caspian‘s opening weekend was $55 million.

So in conclusion, at this point I believe it’s up to the fans of these movies to get people out to the theater to see this one! Tell everybody you know about it. Drag them all to the theater when it comes out. Lets make as much money for this movie as possible! We’ve become rather fond of quoting Doug Gresham who once said “bring your friends, bring your friends’ friends, and even bring your enemies because you’re supposed to love them too!”

Link to Prince Caspian’s BoxOfficeMojo page.
Link to The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe’s BoxOfficeMojo page.
Take a look at AslansCountry and NarniaFans‘ stories on this topic as well.

39 Comments For This Story

  • WarriorOfNarnia says:

    IT WILL DO AWESOME!!

  • Starlily says:

    I’m really hoping the movie does well, but I’m not going to get my hopes up too high. I did that with Prince Caspian and was disappointed that it didn’t make as much money as expected (though it still did fairly well). Right now I’m expecting Dawn Treader to do good, but not fantastic. Really hoping I’ll be wrong, though. πŸ˜€

  • campgirl says:

    I’m gonna drag all of my friends to see it!!! πŸ˜€

  • Daniel James says:

    I’ll be taking at least 50-60 people to see it with me. And I’ll be going to watch it myself at least a couple of times. 3D all the way!

    • elanor says:

      Wow that’s a crowd! My sister and I have managed to get a few friends of ours to go with us to the midnight showing, but 50 people! Phewww…

      After thinking about it, though, wouldn’t we all rather see VDT become a beloved classic than just a silly, hyped, popcorn flick that’s at the top box office rating on the weekend that we probably would only see once? I know I would!
      I would much rather have a meaningful, beautiful, fun movie than those stupid "movies" (which are really just emotional hypes) that get huge ratings now. I felt like Caspian was a little (just a little, of course being from C.S. Lewis’ story it could not totally be like Those Others) hyped and shallow, and even LWW similar in some ways. I’m really hoping (although maybe I’m just hoping too much :)) that VDT will really be a movie. A good movie. Although I’ll be peeking at the ratings (I want the Silver Chair!!) I don’t think that really matters.

      Hoping!!! Only a little more than a week!

  • QueenLucytheValient says:

    I should go more than once. We’ll see. I like Douglas Gresham’s quote.

  • Mayor Wilkins says:

    I plan on seeing this movie at least twice.
    Both times I am going to take other people with me.
    This looks so much better than Caspian.
    It should AT LEAST make as much money as that, if not more.

  • ramandu's daughter says:

    I bet it will be hit more than Caspian πŸ˜€

    • Mayor Wilkins says:

      I would be shocked if not.
      The marketing for this movie has been much better than "Prince Caspian," trailers feel more epic, and all the effects look splendid. Word of mouth thus far has been awesome on most counts. This should outperform "Caspian" easily. πŸ˜‰

  • Mike says:

    We at NF have posted on this as well. The trouble I’ve run into is determining whether or not these box office projections include the ticket premium for 3-D. If they don’t, then the weekend gross *should* be higher.

  • emijoy says:

    i will be begging my mom to take me to see it on opening weekend!!

  • : )Narnia says:

    I hope to see the movie at least three times in theaters and I really hope all those will be opening weekend!!!

  • Northernranger says:

    ONLY NINE MORE DAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Queen Su says:

    I think it will do better than Prince Caspian and maybe LWW. I mean isn’t the Voyage everyone’s favorite book? My guess is that it won’t do as well as LWW but hopefully much better than PC! πŸ™‚

    • JC says:

      Maybe … but all the people I have spoken to (including myself) have to say that The Silver Chair is the best and favorite. For me this is also the most cinematic movie with the richest characters (Puddleglum!!!).

  • Rhys says:

    It’s the only bigger kids’ Christmas film. Let’s hope it does well…

  • N-E-M says:

    Douglas Gresham’s quote always makes me smile! πŸ™‚ I can’t wait till the movie comes out!!!

    ~Nothing-Else-Matters

  • narnian21 says:

    where can i find the reviews for the film?

  • Michelle says:

    well, I’ll be seeing this movie more than twice πŸ™‚

  • DanielmyBrother says:

    A friend of mine said he wanted to see Voyage of the Dawn Treader. He hardly ever goes to movies with me, but he mentioned that he wanted to see this one. I think the trailers are pumping up interest in this movie. Let’s hope so!

  • ChristProclamer says:

    Budget, people, it’s all in the budget. Prince Caspian’s sales were whopping despite the quality of the film; but it ultimately flopped because of the high budget. VoDT’s budget is much lower, so even if it makes fewer sales than PC, it will gross more money, because of the way they handled their budget.

    That said, I think VoDT could come close to PC’s opening weekend; it all depends. I’m going twice on opening weekend and bringing some family with me.

  • Scarlet13 says:

    yes!!! I hope I get to see it!!! I asked my mom and dad If I can but there still thinking about becuz I want to bring four friends…costs more than we like for nine poeple but thats expected. dah I hope we can see it the 11th! πŸ™‚

  • QueenSusanJ316 says:

    I am going at midnight when it first comes out, and then Saturday. Of course I will go more than two times because I have been waiting for this for what seems like forever. I have not going to the movies since Prince Caspian to save my money to spend on this movie! Also my lion party is connecting with the owner of the theater next to where I live to see about doing a huge advertising/ Narnia event.

  • Tribunal says:

    I think a $50 million sounds about right. It will really depend on Fox’s marketing before it hits theaters. We’ll have to see though, if they start airing commercials left and right in the next week then I think it has a good chance.

    My only worry is Tron Legacy which has been hyped for over a year now and Yogi Bear which just look awful but you know the same people who turned out for Alvin and the Chipmunks will see this.

  • Fire vien says:

    It will trump them ALL!!!!!!!!!!!

  • narnian1 says:

    Box Office Mojo posted an article on VDT early this year, Narniaweb reported on it. They think it won’t be a hit. Thye currently have two polls up:

    What is your top choice to see in December?
    So far 1,994 users polled

  • narnian1 says:

    Box Office Mojo posted an article on VDT early this year, Narniaweb reported on it. They think it won’t be a hit. Thye currently have two polls up:

    1. What is your top choice to see in December?
    So far 1,994 users polled, Top 3
    40.7% Tron Legacy
    19.1% The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader
    10.7% True Grit
    …(then, all other movies)

    2. What will be the top-grossing December release?
    So far 1,940 users polled, Top 3
    54.7% Tron Legacy
    23.9% The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader
    14.8% Little Fockers

    Interest is supposedly higher for Tron. Next week they will open up weekly polls That’s what we need to see.

    1. When will you see Narnia? 2. What is your top choice for this weekend? Among other polls. The first helps to define how many people plan on seeing it in theaters throughout its run, the second will help determine if it opens to #1 or not. (Which it should)

  • LucyTheValiant says:

    I feel so empowered considering its, in a way, up to us to make this movie successful. I think that if we’re going ot bring friends and see it more than once (which i think i most likely will have to do, so that it can sink in properly) it will be successful. It sounds so naive but after reading the article above, it was the first time I realized the rest of the movies depend on this one after such a long time. I’m so excited because I get to write a review for the movie for my school newspaper. The anticipation is killing me….December 10th, hurry up πŸ™‚

  • Narniamaniac says:

    Wow, only NINE MORE DAYS?!? I am so excited, and I hope it surpasses the box office predictions and our expectations.

  • blueRain says:

    I’m guessing Voyage will perform a bit better than Caspian did, although it will probably not reach the level of success Wardrobe did.

  • Flute player says:

    I’m going with my youth group on the opening night, and there’s going to be about 20ish of us. We’re probably going to watch it in 2D, though. But then on like, the 28th I’m going to see it with my mom and my sister in 3D! So excited!

  • jag says:

    I have booked a special screening for the youth of our city… we will be packing out the whole theatre… and because of the massive numbers in interest, we are trying to organise another special screening… so were looking at atleast 300 people to begin with!!! AND ITS OUT TODAY IN AUSTRALIA… the first screening is in about 25 mins… shame im at work. BUT TAKE AS MANY PEOPLE AS YOU CAN… MUM, DAD, KIDS, FRIENDS, RELATIVES, NEIGHBOURS, YOUTHGROUPS, FACEBOOK EVERYONE YOU KNOW!

  • narnian resident says:

    dont worry about me! im bringing a big band of friends the first time, and then another big band of friends the second time πŸ˜€

  • lilims says:

    Alright so I’m going at midnight with my best friend and aunt. Then after school I’ll go with all of my friends. On Saturday I’ll go with my family and on sunday I’ll go with my very special guy "friend" πŸ˜‰ C’mon Narnia fans! We can do it πŸ˜€

  • Reepicheep says:

    I’d probably agree that it’ll make $45 million on its opening weekend and here is my appraisal on its success. It’ll probably get bigger as it goes and because of its earlier release in some countries, it will bring in more international dough. HP7.1 shouldn’t be much of a threat because pretty much everyone who wanted to see it has seen it. Its biggest threat is most likely Tron Legacy, considering all the hype surrounding it, and its massive fan base. Earlier this year, IMDB released its expectations saying it will need amazing final product and strong marketing, in order to be a success. By the looks of it, it has both. So I’ll say it’ll make between $500-600 million.

  • glumPuddle says:

    Here’s the secret: If it grosses the same as PC, that’s pretty respectable. People talk like PC bombed. Far from it! It did respectable box office. The problem was that its budget was so high that it wasn’t enough. VDT has scaled back.

  • Alex says:

    I am going to see it once, hopefully, not 3D though.. too much money. I do love the series, I just won’t spend money to "help" it. If it bombs, which I don’t want, I d partly blame Disney. It seems they wanted it to do badly last time to get out of it, maybe for the problems that the religions tones could bring them. The marketing last time was terrible, it was never placed among the blockbusters of the summer during the spring before, something Disney could have managed to happen, but it was busier marketing other movies and probably not wanting this one too succeed to badly, knowing that it would still be successful ebough by itself to make them recover the money. This time the marketing is a bit better, but it sucks its not a great quality movie as it appears from the reviews. The problem this time is that it is now perceived as a lousy wannabe success in risk of disappearing, perhaps partly thanks to Disney?

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