How Will ‘Dawn Treader’ Do at the Box Office?
Now that the world premiere is over for The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, reviews (positive, negative, and mediocre) are starting to come in fast and furious. For those of us who realize that the rest of the Chronicles of Narnia movies ride on this film, we’re especially curious to know how it will do at the Box Office.
Predictions are an educated guess of course, not a peek into the future, but here are some sites that offer predictions as to how Dawn Treader is going to do.
Reuters.com posted a report quoting Gray of Boxofficemojo who said that Fox and Walden should not expect too much. “I would consider it a relative success if the picture gets close to the Prince Caspian numbers,” he said, adding that global ticket revenues of over $400 million “should warrant another movie.”
I personally would think that this movie should easily come close to Prince Caspian‘s numbers. Even if Dawn Treader doesn’t sell quite as many tickets as Caspian, the extra cash from the 3D tickets should more than make up for it. Look at The Last Airbender for example. It received a 6% rating from RottenTomatoes.com, was generally disliked by those who did go see it, and it still made $131.6 million domestically. Just $10 million short of what Prince Caspian made. Surely Dawn Treader can do much better than that?!
Onto a more positive story, the Hollywood Reporter has announced that Dawn Treader is tracking as one of the best out ofthe Holiday releases at this point. They write:
“With some high-profile holiday movies starting to hit Hollywood’s prerelease tracking services, it appears first-weekend prospects for Disney’s Tron: Legacy are significantly below where the studio needs to be with its pricey tentpole.”
“Elsewhere among the holiday-season releases, Sony’s Dec. 10 opener The Tourist, starring Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp, is showing soft prerelease interest. A Tourist debut of just $20 million or so is possible, based on light must-see sentiment expressed so far by respondents to tracking surveys.”
“Meantime, Fox’s Dec. 10 opener The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader is outpacing most of the other season titles in the breadth of its must-see sentiment.”
Having said all of that, the last I heard, Dawn Treader was tracking to make at least a $45 million opening weekend. On one hand that’s good because nobody else is coming in even close. On the other hand, The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe‘s opening weekend was $65 million and Prince Caspian‘s opening weekend was $55 million.
So in conclusion, at this point I believe it’s up to the fans of these movies to get people out to the theater to see this one! Tell everybody you know about it. Drag them all to the theater when it comes out. Lets make as much money for this movie as possible! We’ve become rather fond of quoting Doug Gresham who once said “bring your friends, bring your friends’ friends, and even bring your enemies because you’re supposed to love them too!”
Link to Prince Caspian’s BoxOfficeMojo page.
Link to The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe’s BoxOfficeMojo page.
Take a look at AslansCountry and NarniaFans‘ stories on this topic as well.