One Year To Go: Dawn Treader’s Competition

Official Dawn Treader logo
We are officially one year away from the USA release of The Voyage of the Dawn Treader! Yay! In honor of hitting the 365-days-to-go mark, we thought we’d take a look at Dawn Treader‘s competition next year.

As everybody knows, The Voyage of the Dawn Treader will probably make or break the rest of the Narnia film series due to Prince Caspian not performing as well as the production had hoped and budgeted for. If Dawn Treader does well, the series will continue; if not, the production may call it quits.

After Prince Caspian only made half of its predicted box office profit, most people blamed its summer release date and the tough competition surrounding it (like Iron Man and Indiana Jones). Even though Dawn Treader is back to a Christmas release, it will still face some competition. Here’s what we’re looking at:

harry potter logoNovember 19, 2010 — Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1 (three weeks prior to Dawn Treader)
Love it or hate it, everybody knows that the Harry Potter series has grown into monster franchise. In fact, it is one of the most profitable movie franchises in the world (unadjusted, it’s number one worldwide). There is no doubt this movie will do well at the box office as the series is drawing to a close. Of course the big question for Narnia fans everywhere is will this movie affect Dawn Treader‘s box office? Most movies will have one, maybe two, large grossing weekends. The Harry Potter movies are no exception. By the time week three rolls around it shouldn’t affect Dawn Treader‘s opening weekend. Remember too that The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe came out three weeks after Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire.

rapunzel thumbnailNovember 24, 2010 — Rapunzel 3-D (the Thanksgiving release two and a half weeks prior to Dawn Treader)
This is Disney’s next big animated movie they’ve been hyping for the past year or two. (I heard about this movie long before The Princess and the Frog that comes out tomorrow.) Rapunzel”s big selling point is its new style of animation. It’s a 3-D movie, but with the old hand-painted animation look. Will it affect Dawn Treader? Well, unless its story ends up being on par with Beauty and the Beast or Aladdin, I think Harry Potter is going to swallow this movie whole.

dawn treader thumbnailDecember 10, 2010 — The Voyage of the Dawn Treader
In the words of Doug Gresham, go see it with your friends, take your friends’ friends, and take your enemies because you’re supposed to love them too. Hopefully this movie will be a huge success!

tron logoDecember 17, 2010 – Tron: Legacy (one week after Dawn Treader)
When Tron came out in 1982, it was much like Star Wars with its groundbreaking special effects. Nobody had seen anything like it before. Though it certainly wasn’t as popular as Star Wars, the original Tron has a significant group of hard-core followers. Series reboots are “in” right now, with a lot of movies from the ’70s, ’80s, and ’90s being remade with mixed results. The good ones (like Batman Begins and Star Trek) are making huge profits. It remains to be seen whether or not Tron will fall into this category, but I think its real threat to Dawn Treader is the fact it releases only one week later. It could go either way… King Kong failed to bring down The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe but Indiana Jones did much better than Prince Caspian.

greenhornetlogoDecember 22, 2010 — The Green Hornet (the Christmas release one and a half weeks after Dawn Treader)
This may be the dark horse of the Holiday 2010 movie season. Actor Seth Rogan’s adaptation is based on the ’40s radio show and the later ’60s TV show about a masked superhero called the Green Hornet. Not much is known about this movie yet, aside from the fact that Rogan has stated it will be an old-fashioned-type superhero movie. This movie will be opening the same day as Jack Black’s Gulliver’s Travels, which will definitely help out Dawn Treader as The Green Hornet will have direct competition for its opening day release. Time will tell if it will be a serious contender with Dawn Treader.

In conclusion, when we compare this line-up to what the two previous Narnia movies had to face, this is about as good of a schedule as we could hope for. None of these films really seems to offer serious competition (provided that Dawn Treader is a good movie that everybody wants to go see). However, keep in mind that all of these release dates are subject to change, and more studios may squeeze their movies in around this time as well.

162 Responses

  1. StBrianofMinneapolis says:

    Narnia is the best, but I cant look down on Potter. He is too much fun.

  2. tenthofthatname says:

    Haha too true, I have to concede this point.

  3. Guamnarniafreak says:

    I think if the last book of the series is made into a movie,it would be epic!

  4. Gingerale1987 says:

    i've never been a harry potter fan either. in fact i hate all the witchcraft!

  5. NarniaLover says:

    Harry Potter is so over-rated. the Narnia books on the other hand, i can't stop reading them. every time i read them i notice something different.

  6. NarniaLover says:

    i can't believe people think that Potter stands a chance with Voyage of the Dawn Treader coming out. by the way i agree with Gingerale1987 100%.

  7. K. J. Hill says:

    Uhhhh, ouch. That is A LOT of competition…..with those surrounding it….I'd say it wont do too well…. 🙁

  8. Rosie says:

    I think out of all of these, Harry Potter will be the toughest to beat. Harry Potter has been around for years with the films, and has a large fanbase. First part of the finale film? Going to be hard to beat.
    I'm sure as anything that Dawn Treader will fall into second place with the box office, or possibly even close to beating Deathly Hallows.

    And unlike most people who DISLIKE Harry Potter. I love it to bits. Just as much as I love the Narnia series. Go Dawn Treader. I can't wait.

  9. NarnianElf says:

    I agree. I HATE harry potter.

  10. NarnianElf says:

    Don't jinx it!!!

  11. wolfloversk says:

    I don't think I would like it if they split the stories in two, it would be harder to work with. But it would be cool if after they've finished with the seven books maybe they could make a movie about Swanwhite (I think that's her name) or other narnian legends.

  12. TheScribblingScribe says:

    Agreed. I enjoy both, although some things about HP bother me. I love being able to read Narnia knowing the message behind them, and knowing that C.S. Lewis was a steadfast Christian and down-to-earth guy. Some of the things I've heard about J.K. Rowling do make me uneasy, so I read her books with a bit of distrust.

  13. Kris says:

    As much as I don't agree with Harry Potter (hey, I just follow the bible, folks) I can't deny that it is hugely popular to say the least. As much as I hate to say it, this movie will almost definitely do better than VoTD. However, that doesn't necessarily mean that VoTD will do poorly, just not as good as HP. I'm not too worried about the others. I will be HIGHLY shocked (not to mention depressed) if this movie does so poorly that they have to stop doing Narnia films. I wasn't very surprised that PC didn't do very well. Although all of the Narnia stories are amazing and loved, if you ask most people, PC is considered one of the least favorites, while VoTD is normally considered one of the favorites. My theory anyway.

  14. narniafan4ever ♥ says:

    Is it just me, or does it seem like witchcraft is becoming more and more popular? It kind of makes me uneasy. 🙁

  15. bdog1984 says:

    I like harry potter, narnia, lord of the rings all kinds of fantasy books and movies. As far as the witchcraft all the classic fairytales have witches in them. The wizard of oz, snow white, sleeping beauty, hansel and gretel, even narnia has the white witch and the witch of the green kettle. That is part of the magic of fantasy books. Ever watch bewitched.

  16. YourNightmare says:

    If you hate something shouldn't you have a reason for it? What is wrong with The Boy Who Lived?

  17. Linny says:

    If you truly think that the books are about witchcraft I would suggest that you read one of them. Even just the first one, it's pretty short, you could manage it in an afternoon. Also, the idea of magic has fascinated the world for centuries, I don't think it's actually getting any more popular.

    As for the film competition, if they do the advertising properly and do their very best to get every seat filled, it will be. There's a big enough gap between Harry and Narnia for this to work.

  18. Corey says:

    I never understand people who dislike Harry Potter for the witchcraft present in the story, as if kids actually think that they are going to cast spells in real life. Sure, there are going to be little kids who WANT to do that for a little while, but only as much as they want to swing from webs like Spiderman or shrink down in size like Alice in Wonderland (and you don't hear anyone complaining about *that*). With any story that deals with anything dark, you are always going to find the casual reader/viewer who takes a subject too literally and therefore too far. Someone reading a story about a murderer might take a few notes on technique (and isn't murder just as much a sin as magic?). Another person might begin taking drugs based off a certain piece of music in order to "better understand" or something like that. There will always be instances like this, but to say that such cases are common is, in my opinion, ignorant and an example of underestimation about people in general (not to mention, evident of a somewhat elitist attitude that one understands the world and its purposes better than thou). I consider myself a Christian, but I have to urge other Christians with opposition toward the Harry Potter franchise to evaluate that series with a bit of a secular perspective. Before anyone cries, "How dare you!?", allow me to explain.

    The Potter world does not overtly concern itself with religion of any kind. There are mentions of Christmas and Easter, but not everyone who celebrates those holidays recognizes them with any sort of holy attitude. The story is an example of needing to view a literary work as a self-contained one; there is no need to insert personal life choices into the narrative. The author has identified her world as an alternate reality and has made a conscious choice to avoid mentioning deities and religions (most likely because the inclusion of such a thing practically begs for some explanation and analysis), so is there a reason to evaluate that world based on a religious viewpoint? I see no such need. Why judge from religion when religion, in this unique form of print, does not exist? It's fine to dislike the work on a personal level because of one's lifestyle choices, but to dismiss it completely for that reason makes little sense to me. The case would be different if Rowling introduced God and his values as Christians know them and STILL showed witchcraft as a good thing. However, even then you have a different issue because wizards in Rowling's world are *born* with their ablities. If you have read the novels, you will know that magic is just a context (it isn't an instruction manual of demons and evil manipulation, as some have suggested); the story is only about magic as much as The Time Machine is about time travel. Both are equally impossible in human hands, but in story-form they serve to prove some point about humanity as we all know it.

  19. Adam says:

    I truly hope VOTDT will be amazing enough to continue the series, however I do think that it will never reach the end like Harry Potter. I mean seriously, "The Last Battle"….Hollywood thought LWW was too religious!

  20. Niki says:

    Why can't we like Narnia *and* Harry Potter? How can you even compare them? Beyond sharing the fantasy genre, I don't see any resemblances and, as has been pointed out, HP7(pt.1) comes out three full weeks before Dawn Treader. I don't think that's the biggest concern for sales, realistically.

    But more importantly, it makes me so sad when people actually look at Harry Potter and think it's something detrimental to society. The story focuses so much on tackling issues like racism, and enforcing moral fiber, honesty, integrity, and hard work, I don't see how anyone could make the case that it's "bad". I understand there's an element of witchcraft, but it's inserted as a backdrop setting and a device that gives a position of (limited) control to a small, abused child, which is a feeling many children seek and are able to attain vicariously through the series (as well as many other fantasy series'. Nobody complains about LOTR, but there's a Wizard in that one too and he's the trusted, wise archetypical father figure!).

    I really don't know anyone who is attached to the series because of it's setting in a magical world. It is the characters we fall in love with because they are so impeccably well crafted, as well as the setting of Hogwarts as a safe, worry-free environment for the age group that typically gravitates towards the series. And, as was also previously mentioned, there is NO resemblance to witchcraft as a practiced religion that is pitted against Christianity in the books. Religious beliefs are never mentioned, nor are pentagrams or demons or anything of that sort. There are "spells" and "potions" but these are just words in Latin (which I personally think is a great thing to teach children because hardly anyone recognizes Latin anymore and it's not as if they're real spells anyway) and the kinds of herbal recipes that women used to make in their homes before medicine was widely practiced.

    I would also like to add that I really don't understand why people are so hellbent against pagan practices at all. It was the Christians who persecuted and tortured the pagan religions and forced them upon pain of death to convert for almost no reason at all. So really, maybe you should do some historical research on your own religion and the ones you claim to be against before complaining about the "spreading" of anything. I consider myself a very faithful Christian and I love the Christian elements in Narnia, but you can't be 'against' something you're completely ignorant of.

    Oh, and just for the record. I agree that they should move the date up to October or September. It would make everyone a lot happier lol.

  21. WarriorQueen says:

    Totally agree.

  22. I agree. It's not like I'm crazy about Harry Potter like I am Narnia, but it is fun to watch the charactors grow up through out the films.

  23. StBrianofMinneapolis says:

    doesnt Narnia have a witch in it?

  24. Sahara says:

    But Narnia has Magic too? You are very hypocritical.

  25. Jaye says:

    I'm surprised by the amount of anti-Harry Potter comments on here and I disagree with all the views that Harry Potter is a bad influence or against Christian beliefs because it contains witches and wizards in it. So many people see the word "witch" and they automatically think of evil do-ers but they hear the word "wizard" and they think it's just a fun guy who does magic. Witch is just the female word for wizard, it's just gotten a bad stigma to it because of all the "wicked witch" childhood stories and such. Those that have anti-christian views of Harry Potter have obviously never read the books or watched the movies. It is a shame really because they are missing out on one of the best stories ever written. A story jam packed with positive morals and things we christians hold dear to us. It is an increadible story about love, bravery, trust, loyalty, always making the choice to do what is right no matter how scared you are, and the triumph of good over evil and whether it is your type of thing or not, you can't deny that it is a brilliantly written story, as is Narnia, and anyone should want themselves and their children learning what it has to teach us. I beg you to give them a chance if you never have before. They are the best I've ever read and both Narnia and HP are my top 2 favorite books and films of all time, both for different reasons. The HP film comming out 3 weeks before VDT isn't going to hurt VDT's chances because the major hype will have died down by then. I personally can't wait for them both to come out! It looks like I will be spending a lot of time at the theater come this time next year!

  26. Narnia Girl says:

    Go VDT!!!! oh I'm soooooo psyched!!!! Oh please, harry potter better than Narnia? YUCK! Sorry to all you "potter fans" but my vote is most assuredly with VDT! 🙂

  27. NarniaLover says:

    but narnia's not witchcraft and more natural kinds of magic

  28. NarniaLover says:

    are you a christian? 🙂

  29. NarniaLover says:

    me and my family used to throw LOTR parties every time a new LOTR movie came out. so we were kind weird in that sense of speaking.

  30. NarniaLover says:

    i do agree that PC was severely messed-up and i do hope that the directors and producers don't mess up VDT. that was my favorite Narnia book, if the people do mess it up, i wouldn't want to see what happens to HHB.

  31. NarniaLover says:

    i'm sorry, but who exactly are you criticizing? some people (like the Harry Potter crew) just don't get the point of Christianity and even if they are christians they could at least be bold enough to show it and teach it and not let false religions.
    and still, i do think that Christmas and Easter are two holidays that are very good to Christianity but do they show that in HP or are they just the way those holidays have been changed and altered to be. gift giving IS a part of celebrating Christmas but people forget that Christmas is about celebrating Jesus Christ's day of birth. IS Easter about bunnies and colorful eggs? I don't think so! No, it's about the day Christ surrendered his good, pure soul to save our own dark, retched souls. Plus, saying that religions aren't real, that's just wrong! because Christianity is a religion, MY religion. And no amount of 'Harry Potter" is going to pull me away from Christianity. try as you may.

  32. NarniaLover says:

    it's sooo weird how much I agree with you!!! I am definatly NOT a "Potter fan". 🙂

  33. fanofnarnia says:

    EVERYONE, please who ever is reading this!
    MUST BUY narnia: voyage of the dawn treader!
    PLZ…………… we must keep the narnia series going!

    fuck harry potter, fuck repuzel, fuck iron man,
    and damn green hornet!!!!!!!

    love and buy narnia3 for the fan sake!

  34. SavedByGrace says:

    Yup, he is; and the Rapunzal movie sounds…interesting, to say the least. VDT just HAS to pass the other 2; they have to make the rest of the series!

  35. StumpsInsteadOfFeet says:

    Narnia has witches in it from the Northland, so what. Great books are made into good movies. Everyone wins unless one film adaptation changes another,like the way Harry Potter 2 had a big spider in it, thus Jackson felt obliged to change the end of The Two Towers film, that's bullocks. So that is why I dislike Harry Potter movies just a bit, not bad films although the first 2 Potter movies aren't very good. (Chris Columbus' time is better spent writing the likes of Goonies and directing Adventures in Babysitting). I just won't read any children's books that are 700 pages long, and I feel JK Rowling's stories are just derivative of LOTR and the Chronicles, both classic literature. I've read LOTR and the Chronicles and merely watched Harry Potter series (not in theaters). Dawn Treader is a great story, I hope they do it justice! and let's hope The Silver Chair is not head to head with The Hobbit!!

  36. Oooohh…Harry Potter will be huge competition. The other ones don't seem quite as big to me, though I'm no expert on movies. However, I think that if The Voyage of the Dawn Treader is a good movie (which it should be), then it won't really matter what its competition is like. Prince Caspian did badly in the box office because it was a bad movie – not because Indiana Jones 4 came out around the same time. If the makers of Voyage are willing to learn from the mistakes made in Prince Caspian and STAY FAITHFUL TO THE BOOK, then I think this will be a great movie that'll make tons of money. If not, then we can say goodbye to the Narnia movie franchise. Harry Potter's release date shouldn't affect its success too much.

  37. Robin Hood says:

    Mind your manners !

  38. GEO NAR-FAN says:

    personally i think that narnia VDT will do great and that they should in no way stop making them but if in the small chance that the series seems "thretened" we should help out a bit write pettitions, sell t-shirts etc. i dont know.

    if the movie has trouble coming we have to pitch in al we can! GO NARNIA!!!

  39. Corey says:

    Um…first of all, if you have indeed read my post thoroughly, you will see that I AM a Christian. I never said, nor would I ever say, that I want to pull someone away from their religion. Everyone deserves to have their own beliefs (and yes, that goes for non-Christians, too). Please, people, be reasonable here. Read and research before making unfounded comments about something.

    My point about religion is that there is none IN THE HARRY POTTER BOOKS. Why do we have to assume that every book takes place in our world with our personal beliefs? That's inserting information into a narrative in which it does not belong. Though you might want them to be, not every book is about God or needs to have God in it. Therefore, not every book needs to have a religious aspect in its narrative or in others' judgement of it. Christmas and Easter, although you may celebrate in the Christian tradition, does not mean the same to everyone. Some people aren't religious and associate those holidays with family gatherings instead of the saving of their "dark, wretched souls". Again, I'm not saying that religion isn't real – I'm saying that it's not real in the pages of certain books. Harry Potter is just a story. It has positive moral values, many of which can be traced straight to the pages of the Bible. No, I'm not joking. As I mentioned above, magic is just a context. People like to slap "EVIL" on the stories just because it involves spells and enchantments, which are really only words in Latin. Harry Potter is only about magic in the way that Narnia is about talking animals and moving trees. Why aren't we condemning Narnia because it involves a river god? Because it's fake – it's a story. Is it that difficult to understand?

    As for your comment about the Harry Potter crew "not getting Christianity" and being weak for not teaching it if they DO "get it"…that's a bit of an ignorant statement, don't you think? How do you know what they think and believe? This is where I draw the line with Christian fundamentalism. Although I am a Christian, I can't get behind the "I know better than you do" attitude. It's wrong and mean-spirited.

  40. Corey says:

    While a movie being poorly made will have an effect on repeated ticket sales, it doesn't really have an effect on a poor box office performance. You never really know if a movie is going to be good or bad before you see it, right? I'm sure Prince Caspian's earnings did drop because of the competition. Think about all those stupid parody movies that come out – Scary Movie, Epic Movie, Date Movie – and make a lot of money. Then there are truly wonderful art films that don't make any money because the general public doesn't care. Quality doesn't necessarily have anything to do with earnings.

  41. Corey says:

    Great objective post! I agree with everything you've said here. Some people need to open their perspectives a little. I'm a Christian, but I love the Harry Potter books for artistic reasons rather than religious ones. I don't think I'm going to hell for reading a book purely for entertainment.